If a military intervention occurred in Venezuela, what would happen the next day?
A military intervention in Venezuela would lead to devastation and destruction, but would be less destructive than one more day under Maduro.
The enigmatic and eccentric Tyler Durden, said in the classic film Fight Club, that the objective of the oxygen masks in airplanes is not to oxygenate you, but to drug you, so that you would be unconscious as you confronted a tragic death. Although the statement written by Chuck Palahniuk has never been verified, it is a perfect metaphor to understand what is happening in Venezuela with some politicians from both sides, who, in the midst of ideological disputes, numb the population to bring then to a certain death, while they prolong the conflict and in the meantime get richer.
It is true that a military intervention would be anything but simple. For a military power like the United States, taking Nicolás Maduro out of office by force would be the easy part. The serious problem would be the next phase: rebuilding thereafter. Political analysts, military strategists, and journalists have tried to explain what would be involved in a military intervention in Venezuela. Their forecasts are mostly tragic, and yes, it is true, the outlook for Venezuela looks complicated after a military intervention. Nonetheless, in no eventuality is the picture much better with Nicolás Maduro remaining in power for one more day.
The vast majority of analyses place great emphasis on the devastation that would be involved with an armed war in Venezuela. However, these “analysts” are unwilling and/or unable to measure the consequences of a group of drug traffickers and terrorists remaining in power.
Undoubtedly, a military intervention in Venezuela of any kind is risky for the future, but no transition involving the Chavista dictatorship will be easy.
With transition through a foreign military invasion, here we will reiterate: no transition with Chavismo will be easy, just as the breakup of any relationship is never easy; especially one that is harmful and toxic. With a pervasive mafia presence in Venezuela, eradicating these criminal structures will not be easy; it will hardly take a matter of days. The problem is not in getting Maduro out of Miraflores, but in getting the new occupants of Miraflores to stay there and exercise power. It is estimated that the paramilitaries and collectives (irregular armed groups that support Maduro) have about 100,000 members; although it is difficult to determine the accuracy of these figures, and really they amount to a group of small criminal gangs. If a foreign intervention occurs there is a great risk that small anarchic states will be established in parts of the Venezuelan Republic. An American presence will be criticals to help maintain peace and rebuild institutions in the coming years.
Another fundamental aspect to take into account is the amount of casualties that this could cause. Any death is regrettable, but Venezuelans have been struggling to defend themselves, unarmed, against these irregular groups in a conflict in which more than 300,000 Venezuelans have lost their lives.
Read the entire analysis HERE.