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NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic): National Hurricane Center – Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

AXNT20 KNHC 262352

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.


…Excessive Rainfall Over Central America…

The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains.
Please refer to the local meteorological service for more


A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic analyzed
along 25W from 10N-01S, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are seen within the vicinity of this feature.

A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
with axis along 56W and from 13N-02S. The wave is moving at
around 15 kt. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are
noted along the wave’s axis mainly south of 05N.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N27W to 02S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough between
19W-23W, in addition to scattered moderate convection seen from
07N-03N and east of 16W to the Ivory Coast. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted along the ITCZ west of 36W.


Surface ridging continues across the basin from a 1021 mb high
pressure over southern Alabama near 32N87W. Fair weather prevails
across the Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
easterly winds in the northeast Gulf, with gentle to moderate
east-southeasterly winds for the rest of the basin. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues
over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W.

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will
maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf
and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through Thursday. A
trough will form over the Yucatan Peninsula each day and move
into the southwestern Gulf in the mornings, supporting locally
fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Smoke from fires in
southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the
southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early
part of the week.


Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the
southwest Caribbean off the Central American and Colombian coasts.
See the above section for more details on the excessive rainfall
threat over Central America.

Moderate to strong convection is currently underway across Cuba
and Hispaniola. Some of these storms are moving into adjacent
waters. Jamaica and Puerto Rico are also experiencing
thunderstorms. Meanwhile, isolated showers are moving across
portions of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
across most of the Caribbean, with light winds in the Bay of
Honduras and fresh to strong winds north of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week.
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much
of the western Caribbean through at least the early part of the
week. A tropical wave along 55W will move across the rest of the
Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight, then across the eastern
Caribbean Monday through Tuesday, then across the central
Caribbean Tuesday night through Wednesday night while it loses
its identity.


Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

A cold front enters the west-central Atlantic near 31N49W and
extends westward to 25N63W to 27N77W. From 27N77W, the tail-end
of the boundary stalls and extends northward to 31N77W. Ahead of
the front, a trough extends from 30N48W to 20N72W. Showers are
seen along the front and the trough, particularly north of 28N.
Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the

A cold front west of the northern Bahamas will move
south and stall along 24N Mon before dissipating Monday night. A
high pressure ridge will build behind the front along roughly
28N through Wednesday, then shift slightly northward late
Wednesday through Friday night.

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