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NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic): National Hurricane Center – Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

AXNT20 KNHC 161711

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.



Scatterometer winds at 1410 UTC this morning over the southwestern
Caribbean showed E to SE tradewinds up to 30 kt near the Colombia
coastline. The surface ridge will build slightly north of the
Caribbean during the next few days. This will enhance the
tradewinds up to minimal gale near the Colombia coastline Thursday
evening, Friday evening, and possibly Saturday evening. Conditions
should subside slightly on Sunday. Please read the High Seas
Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.


The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of West Africa near
08N14W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 00N-05N between 15W-23W and also from
00N-03N between 37W and the coast of Brazil.


A high pressure ridge is centered over the southeastern U.S.
forcing 10-20 kt winds over the Gulf that shifts anticyclonically
from NE over the eastern Gulf to SE over the western. No
significant deep convection is currently present over the Gulf. A
weak 1021 mb low is present over lower Texas coast with a trailing
trough extending south from the low along the northeastern Mexico
coast. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the
northeastern Mexico coast and the lower Texas coast. On Friday
night S winds will be enhanced in the western Gulf ahead of a
strong cold front. The front will emerge Saturday and quickly race
across the Gulf, reaching south Florida and Cuba by Sunday. There
will be the potential for strong thunderstorms ahead and along
the front on Saturday and Sunday. Additionally, N gales behind the
front are likely on the weekend as well with strongest winds near
the Mexican coast.


A Gale Warning is in effect for the Caribbean Sea near the coast
of Colombia. See discussion above for more information. Elsewhere
10-20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean with no organized deep
convection present. Isolated showers are occurring near the
Leeward Islands including Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the
northwestern Caribbean.

On Sunday a strong cold front will reach the northwestern
Caribbean and reach central America by Monday. At this time, N gales
are not anticipated in the western Caribbean from this strong


A stationary front extends from across our border at 31N56W to
24N69W. Winds are generally 10-20 kt across the front, while
scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the
front north of 27N. A secondary cold front is analyzed from 31N63W
to 28N69W. Likewise winds with this front are weak and scattered
showers are present within 60 nm of the front. These two fronts
should merge by Thursday and continue eastward across the central

Saturday night S to SW winds will be enhanced ahead of a strong
approaching cold front north of the Bahamas. These SW winds are
anticipated to reach gale force on Sunday and Monday as the front
quickly moves eastward. The N winds behind the front should remain
below gale force. There will also be the potential for strong
thunderstorms ahead and along the front on Sunday and Monday.

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