Hurricane Michael still a powerful storm
NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic): National Hurricane Center – Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
AXNT20 KNHC 181725
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is along 29W from 04N-20N, moving west at 15 kt.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.
A tropical wave extends from 30N44W to 17N43W, moving SW at 25 kt
This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated over
the NE Atlantic. The wave is traveling through a dry environment,
and no convection is noted.
A tropical wave is along 58W from 07N-25N, moving west at 15 kt.
This wave has a well defined surface signature on satellite
imagery. Isolated moderate convection is over the N apex of the
wave from 21N-25N between 56W-60W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 10N-25N, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba and
Jamaica from 17N-20N between 75W-79W. Scattered showers are over
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ extends from 10N23W to 09N28W. The
ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N31W to the coast of N
Brazil near 01N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-
09N between 35W-42W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
Weak surface ridging is over the the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1024 mb surface high centered over the W Atlantic
near 29N62W. Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf and central
Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf.
Widely scattered moderate convection is over central and south
Florida, and the E Gulf E of 86W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-22N between 94W-
98W partially due to an upper level low centered near 23N94W.
A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast
through Mon night, then weaken in response to a weak front over
the NW Gulf Tue night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
will generally continue across the basin, except fresh to
occasionally strong winds to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula
during the evening and overnight hours through the period.
Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave
traversing the Caribbean. In addition, 20-30 kt winds are over
the central Caribbean. Highest winds are along the coast of N
Colombia. 15 kt trade winds are the remainder of the Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection is over Costa Rica and W Panama.
Scattered showers are inland over Honduras, Guatemala, and El
In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the
Cayman Islands near 19N81W, enhancing the convection over E Cuba
and Jamaica. The central and eastern Caribbean has upper level
ridging with strong subsidence.
High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Locally strong trade winds will pulse across the Gulf of
Honduras each night through Sun night. A tropical wave will move
across the eastern Caribbean from early Thu through Fri night,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to
weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean. Another tropical
wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic waters Sat and Sat
night, then across the eastern Caribbean Sun through Mon night
with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.
Widely scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of
25N and W of 76W, to include the N Bahamas. A 1024 mb surface
high centered over the W Atlantic near 29N62W. A large 1027 mb
high is entered over the Azores near 36N27W.
Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the the W Atlantic near 25N65W. Upper level diffluence SE of
the low is enhancing the convection from 21N-25N between 56W-60W.
Over the W Atlantic, a high pressure ridge along 29N/30N will
maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through Mon
night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong between the
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, primarily during the evening
hours through the period.
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